Department of Quantitative Social Science The impact of the Great Recession on the incomes of households

What are the impacts on household incomes of the major economic downturn that occurred in almost all OECD countries starting in late 2007? This paper is a condensed version of a public lecture given at the University of Melbourne in honour of R. I. Downing. It draws on a study of 21 rich countries using data from national accounts, household surveys, and other sources. The headline findings are that for most countries, there was little change in household income distributions in the two years following the downturn (2007–9), but in the subsequent five to ten years, much greater change is likely, as a result of governments' fiscal consolidation and the slow pace of economic recovery. The social safety nets developed since the Great Depression therefore played an important cushioning role in the short term. JEL classification: D31, E24, E62, H50, H60, I32